The strong smell of motor oil and grease wafts through the air at JR Automotive in San Francisco as Jesús Rojas lifts the hood of a 2014 Honda Civic to inspect its engine. Gas-powered vehicles like this one have hundreds of moving parts and other components that keep mechanics like Rojas busy. The 42-year-old mechanic has spent much of his life perfecting the specialized skills needed to inspect and repair them. But as California switches to electric vehicles in its battle against climate change and air pollution, these skills will be less and less needed over the next decade. By 2040, the state projects nearly 32,000 auto mechanic jobs will be lost in California, as electric vehicles need far less maintenance and repair than conventional combustion engines. “I'm not against electric vehicles,” said Rojas, who immigrated to the Bay Area from Mexico as a teenager and started his own business 11 years ago. “I have always loved cars and I will work on them until I can't anymore. So we have to adjust. We have to get out of our comfort zones.” In an effort to become a climate-friendly, carbon-neutral state, California's proposal to phase out all new gasoline-powered cars by 2035 will drive a broad transition of the workforce. Throughout the economy, approximately 64,700 jobs will be lost due to the mandate, according to estimates by the California Air Resources Board. On the other hand, an estimated 24,900 jobs would be gained in other sectors, so the estimated net loss is 39,800 jobs, a minimum amount in the entire state economy, by 2040. But no workforce in the state would be more harmed than auto mechanics: California has about 60,910 auto service technicians and mechanics , and more than half of those jobs would be lost over the next two decades if the mandate goes into effect, the air board estimates. The transition would be done in stages over a decade: Beginning with the 2026 model years, 35% of new cars and light trucks sold in California would be zero emissions, reaching 51% in 2028, 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The board will hold a hearing June 9 before voting on the proposal in August. Alex Dirige, 67, an immigrant from Guam who has worked as a mechanic in San Francisco for more than 30 years, fears the transition to electric cars will threaten the livelihood of vulnerable groups like undocumented immigrants and cause many repair workers of automobiles leave the industry altogether. The trade provides a stable and reliable income in California for many workers without a college degree. On average, mechanics statewide earn about $26 an hour or $54,190 a year, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Many mechanics who have started work see there is no long-term future in auto repair business, with hybrids and electric cars coming out,” said Dirige. “The electric vehicle repair market is practically non-existent. Many of them would love to be in the field, but could choose other types of employment.” Who Loses and Who Wins in Jobs California is already suffering from the ill effects of climate change, which is hurting its economy, not just its public health and environment. About 40% of its greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation, the most of any sector, so state leaders say reducing reliance on gasoline and moving toward electric cars is crucial to avoiding even more disastrous effects. . Some industries gain jobs while others lose them as the state switches to zero-emission vehicles. The retail trade sector, which includes gas station workers and auto and parts dealers, would lose 38,669 jobs by 2040, or about 2% of the retail workforce. Most of the losses would be at gas stations. As the electric vehicle fleet grows, air board officials project that gas stations could provide charging to offset losses.

Part of the loss in the retail sector is due to less expendable income. Electric cars now cost more to buy, though prices will come down and maintenance will cost much less, saving about $3,200 for the life of a 2026 car and $7,500 for a 2035 car, according to the air board. An additional 20,831 state and local government jobs would be eliminated due to decreased gas tax revenue. But the transition to electric cars will also create thousands of jobs. Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric and other companies in the energy industry stand to benefit the most, creating some 5,600 jobs by 2040, as car owners spend more on electricity to power their vehicles. Insurance companies will benefit from some 1,700 new jobs, while the construction industry is expected to gain some 3,600. Since few vehicles are built in California, it is unlikely the state will see an increase in manufacturing in response to the mandate. Of the top 44 auto assembly plants in the US, most are located in the Midwest and South, according to a 2021 report from the International Council on Clean Transportation, a nonprofit research organization. A 'slow' change Mechanics who work on internal combustion engines would still have plenty of work to do: The rule would not ban used car sales and would not force state residents to stop driving the estimated 29 million gas-powered cars already in use. they are in the streets. Californians could also continue to import new or used vehicles from other states. That means Californians will still own plenty of gas-powered cars after 2035, softening the blow for auto mechanics and industries that rely on fossil fuels, said James Sallee , an economist and research associate at the Energy Institute at the School of Energy. Haas Business from the University of California, Berkeley. Sallee said the changes would not happen fast enough to trigger a sharp economic slowdown within the auto repair industry. "It's when there are quick, rapid changes that we think do the most harm to workers because they can't relocate freely and quickly," Sallee said. “So it's important for people to keep in mind that it's a slow process, not a dramatic, super-quick shift in demand for gas stations or oil changes. It's going to be something that takes place over a longer period of time." Electric cars have fewer fluids, such as motor oil, and fewer moving parts than a conventional car. Brake systems also last longer due to regenerative braking, which converts energy from the brake pads into electricity to recharge the battery, according to the US Department of Energy . They also do not have mufflers, radiators and exhaust systems.

But auto mechanics have warned that while most operating and maintenance costs are lower for electric vehicles, some parts can be more expensive to replace. Rojas also said electric car owners could experience problems in the future that they haven't thought about yet. Electric vehicles tend to weigh more than conventional cars, which means they need special tires that can handle a heavier load. Those can cost $200 to $300 per tire, compared to the $50 to $150 average for a gas-powered car, Rojas said. Also, other services like replacing a windshield on a car like a Tesla, which has sensors and computerized functions, could cost $1,100 to $2,000, he said, compared to $200 to $500 for a conventional car windshield. “Because the car is still under warranty from the dealer, nothing is coming out of his pocket right now,” Rojas said. "But as soon as the vehicle gets older, they will get more expensive." While sales of zero-emission vehicles have risen steadily in recent years, Californians continue to drive primarily gasoline-powered cars. Electric cars in 2021 accounted for about 3% of all cars on the road, but 12.4% of car sales . Some mechanics doubt that consumer behavior can change as fast as the air board thinks it will. The proposal would require a massive overhaul of new charging stations and building codes. “It is almost impossible to make all these changes by 2035,” said Dirige. “We don't have the infrastructure to go all electric vehicles. We barely have it now. And if you ask people, they're afraid they'll end up with a car that loses power and they'll be stuck somewhere."

Mechanics will need new skills or new jobs

Rojas and his business partner, Raúl Pérez, employ two other mechanics, also Latino immigrants, who perform routine services like oil changes and tune-ups. Rojas said mechanics have to invest thousands of dollars of their own money to buy special equipment and tools. Some might use their existing tools and skills to service electric cars, since the cars would still require cosmetic repairs, tire rotations and battery inspections. But many won't be able to afford to retrain for a new career or learn new skills in complex areas like electrical engineering needed to repair hybrid and electric models. “If the government is interested in helping us financially retrain, it could really help people who might be struggling but want to learn,” he said. But auto mechanics have warned that while most operating and maintenance costs are lower for electric vehicles, some parts can be more expensive to replace. Rojas also said electric car owners could experience problems in the future that they haven't thought about yet. Electric vehicles tend to weigh more than conventional cars, which means they need special tires that can handle a heavier load. Those can cost $200 to $300 per tire, compared to the $50 to $150 average for a gas-powered car, Rojas said. Also, other services like replacing a windshield on a car like a Tesla, which has sensors and computerized functions, could cost $1,100 to $2,000, he said, compared to $200 to $500 for a conventional car windshield. “Because the car is still under warranty from the dealer, nothing is coming out of his pocket right now,” Rojas said. "But as soon as the vehicle gets older, they will get more expensive." While sales of zero-emission vehicles have risen steadily in recent years, Californians continue to drive primarily gasoline-powered cars. Electric cars in 2021 comprise around 3% of all cars on the road but also 12.4% of car sales . Some mechanics doubt that consumer behavior can change as fast as the air board thinks it will. The proposal would require a massive overhaul of new charging stations and building codes. “It is almost impossible to make all these changes by 2035,” said Dirige. “We don't have the infrastructure to go all electric vehicles. We barely have it now. And if you ask people, they're afraid they'll end up with a car that loses power and they'll be stuck somewhere." Mechanics will need new skills or new jobs Rojas and his business partner, Raúl Pérez, employ two other mechanics, also Latino immigrants, who perform routine services like oil changes and tune-ups. Rojas said mechanics have to invest thousands of dollars of their own money to buy special equipment and tools. Some might use their existing tools and skills to service electric cars, since the cars would still require cosmetic repairs, tire rotations and battery inspections. But many won't be able to afford to retrain for a new career or learn new skills in complex areas like electrical engineering needed to repair hybrid and electric models. “If the government is interested in helping us financially retrain, it could really help people who might be struggling but want to learn,” he said.

Shane Gusman, a lobbyist for the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, said state leaders should help fund training for workers who lose their jobs due to state efforts to combat climate change. “Trade unions do not stand in the way of responsible policies to protect the climate and try to slow down climate change,” he said. “But we all need to think about the impact on workers. We need to try to come up with policies that protect the workforce, which ultimately protects our economy." To reduce job losses from its zero-emission vehicle mandate, the air board in its report says "policy options for job training and transfer support could be considered, particularly for low-income people." State Senator Josh Becker, a Democrat from San Mateo , agrees. He said that “the path to zero needs to foster new safe and well-paying middle-class jobs, and work to transition those from fossil fuel industries.” “It is true that it is easier to talk about energy transition when it is not our own jobs that are threatened by it,” he said. Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi, who chairs the Joint Legislative Committee on Climate Change Policy, introduced AB 1966 , which would create a state fund to help retrain and transition fossil fuel industry workers to other clean sectors. He said the funds would also offer salary replacement and insurance, pension guarantees, healthcare options and peer counseling. However, the bill would not help auto mechanics. "We all know that change can be difficult for anyone," he said. "We need to transition to a clean energy economy in a way that leaves no one behind."